From: | John Murphy <jcm111@sna.com> |
Date: | 08 May 1997 09:43:10 |
Reply: | cpeo-military |
Subject: | Re: NEW CLOSURE PROCESS |
Here are some of my thoughts based on working with the DOD base closure program from 1988 to 1994. My last assignment on active duty was working BRAC issues at the Pentagon. I think the process will likely look a great deal like the previous BRAC rounds. DOD was very careful to not tinker with procedures, processes, etc.--except in response to GAO or Congressional criticism between the 91, 93 and 95 rounds. The feeling was that what had survived the slings and arrows of previous rounds provided an acceptable position for the next series. Since 26-87 procedure of considering individual bases and obtaining Congressional approval failed, the "all or nothing" Commission process was created. (Even Congressional members who hated the BRAC Commission process, have acknowledge it is the only way to effectly close installations.) >From a Congressional perspective, the resistance to additional closures is being voiced primarily by delegations with bases that have survived the last four BRAC rounds. From many conversations with Congressional members and staff, the indications are that the delegations that have lost bases already (the have nots) have little sincere-sympathy for their colleagues with remaining bases (the haves). Playing on top of this dynamic is concern with how to sell the more painful initiatives that have been suggested "as necessary" in order to balance the budget to their voters. Cuts in medicare, social security, and other domestic programs will effect large groups in every member's district--even the haves. Congressional members are sensitive to the need to take a serious shot at reducing the DOD budget as a way to minimize reductions in other very broad-based programs. The potential for an ugly voter backlash in the next election is very real and well understood. While there will almost certainly be a great wailing and gnashing of teeth for public consumption by many of the folks on the Hill, I agree with Lenny and put the probabilty of additional BRAC rounds in the near-term as high. John Murphy | |
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