1997 CPEO Military List Archive

From: John Murphy <jcm111@sna.com>
Date: 08 May 1997 09:43:10
Reply: cpeo-military
Subject: Re: NEW CLOSURE PROCESS
 
Here are some of my thoughts based on working with the DOD base closure
program from 1988 to 1994. My last assignment on active duty was
working BRAC issues at the Pentagon. I think the process will likely
look a great deal like the previous BRAC rounds. DOD was very careful
to not tinker with procedures, processes, etc.--except in response to
GAO or Congressional criticism between the 91, 93 and 95 rounds. The
feeling was that what had survived the slings and arrows of previous
rounds provided an acceptable position for the next series. Since 26-87
procedure of considering individual bases and obtaining Congressional
approval failed, the "all or nothing" Commission process was created. 
(Even Congressional members who hated the BRAC Commission process, have
acknowledge it is the only way to effectly close installations.)

>From a Congressional perspective, the resistance to additional closures
is being voiced primarily by delegations with bases that have survived
the last four BRAC rounds. From many conversations with Congressional
members and staff, the indications are that the delegations that have
lost bases already (the have nots) have little sincere-sympathy for
their colleagues with remaining bases (the haves). Playing on top of
this dynamic is concern with how to sell the more painful initiatives
that have been suggested "as necessary" in order to balance the budget
to their voters. Cuts in medicare, social security, and other domestic
programs will effect large groups in every member's district--even the
haves. Congressional members are sensitive to the need to take a
serious shot at reducing the DOD budget as a way to minimize reductions
in other very broad-based programs. The potential for an ugly voter
backlash in the next election is very real and well understood.

While there will almost certainly be a great wailing and gnashing of
teeth for public consumption by many of the folks on the Hill, I agree
with Lenny and put the probabilty of additional BRAC rounds in the
near-term as high.

John Murphy

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